Fact or fiction?
Statistics or lies? Those are the questions on the lips of many Kiwis today; or
at least they should be.
We awoke this
morning to read a breathless account of how the ruling National Party – the one
under whose stewardship we have seen a massive rise in unemployment, a huge
drop in living standards and for the average worker, no increase in income -
has scored a 51 percent approval rating in the latest 3News political poll.
This is the same party that has presided over the school closures/non-closures
debacle in Christchurch and signed off on and continued to persevere with the
Nonopay method of not paying those teachers who still have a job. It is also
the same party that bailed out finance companies and offered tasty deals to
SkyCity Casinos in return for them building a massive convention centre while
ignoring those at the bottom of the economic slag heap.
And let’s not
forget the Stormtrooper tactics they employed against Kim Dotcom, a naturalised
New Zealander whose privacy is supposed to be guaranteed, while trying to
cuddle up to the FBI over charges they have yet to prove. These are also the same people who have covered
up one cock-up after another, developed a condition I shall call amnesia
convenientus whenever they were nailed with some particularly damning evidence.
They also tried, Stasi like, to muzzle a photographer who accidentally
overheard a conversation that was held in public between two public figures,
while flagrantly compromising the privacy of beneficiaries and ACC claimants.
And 51 percent of
us approve of all this? I feel a fucking great Tui billboard coming on.
Of course what
this simply proves is that you can’t trust these sorts of polls. They are
completely unscientific although the pollsters would tell you otherwise. The
pollsters live in the world of statistics and probabilities where everything
can be answered by a mathematical equation. The trouble is, when you are
dealing with people, that mathematical equation has so many more variables than
anyone can sensibly ever take account of. If you were to factor in every
possible variable that could affect a poll’s results you would soon realise
that you cannot ever accurately project such results.
For example how
do we know that 51 percent of respondents weren’t died in the wool National
Party members or supporters? Or that the respondents weren’t simply taking the
piss? The fact is we don’t and neither do the pollsters, because even if they
were to ask the respondents such questions, there is no way they could ever
verify the answers. They reckon they can extrapolate the results and even give
us a ‘margin for error’. That too is a fiction because it is only a
mathematical probability based upon previous observations which could have been
equally inaccurate. It has often been said that the only poll that matters is
the one on Election Day, and that is hard to argue with. It is the only one you
can trust, (always providing there is no jiggery pokery going on at the polling
booth).
I wouldn’t even
bother commenting on this were it not for the fact that I think polls like this
are influential. The sheeple out there in Godforsakenzone actually think these
things are correct, and of course because they ARE sheeple they like to stay
with the flock. Of course the fact this poll was conducted by 3News, a company
owned by Mediaworks, a company that was given a $43M loan guarantee, by... let
me see who was it now? Oh, yes; the National Government might explain a few
things. I’m just sayin’.
However the
slippery poll is not the only unbelievable thing to catch my eye in the last
week. The one day cricket series between the Black Caps and England was
another. To be fair this one was pointed out to me by my very observant wife
who is not slow to see connections others often miss.
The series began
as those of us sad individuals who want to cheer on the Black Caps had hoped
but not expected, with a three wicket win by the Kiwis. We watched it free to
air on Prime and enjoyed the tense finish. Then came the second match where the
Black caps suffered a severe drubbing by the visitors and lost by eight
wickets. The two performances by the Kiwis were so different that it was
actually very frustrating to watch that game which was also shown on free to
air on Prime, but as the commentators reminded us; this now set up the final
game to be a thriller with the series standing at one apiece.
It was only when
we checked the TV Times to see what time we could sit down and watch that
decider that little doubts began to creep into our minds. The third one dayer
was not scheduled to be shown free to air on Prime at all; it had always been
planned to be shown only on SkySport for those who had a Sky subscription. Now
there’s a coincidence. Of course England went on to win that match as well
(this time by five wickets) which was totally in keeping with their form, and
that of the Black Caps.
Now call me a suspicious old bugger, but I can’t help feeling
that it was extremely convenient for SkySport that the Black Caps should shock
everyone by winning the first match that was free to air and lose the second
which was also free to air leaving the ‘exciting’ decider to be shown only to
paying viewers. All the more so, given the current fuss about match fixing in
regards to cricket matches and given also that we were constantly shown a
little graphic in the top left hand corner of the screen during the second
match that showed the odds one particular agency was giving for England to win
the game. I’m just sayin’.
And finally
another item to deserve mention in Mr Ripley’s ripping tales is the ongoing
saga of the Act(ing) Party and little Johnny Banksia. The short-arsed one is
under the spotlight yet again for allegedly being less than honest. No! Surely
not! This time it seems the diminutive career politician (I don’t care where as
long as I am elected there) is under scrutiny in relation to statements made in
the prospectus of finance company Huljich Wealth Management of which he had
been described as an executive director. It seems the prospectus contained a
number of things that misled investors. No! Surely not! Another of the company’s
directors, Peter Huljich has already 'fessed up to the fact that the prospectus
contained misleading information and he has been fined $112,500, which would be
a pathetic slap on the wrist with a wet bus ticket for someone in his position.
However the petite politician who was described as an executive director up
until 2008, then later had his job description amended to simply director has
now been asked to answer the allegations that he as an executive director was
also liable for the veracity or otherwise of the statements in the prospectus.
Interestingly his former partner in (political) crime, Dong Brash is facing the
same allegations over the same prospectus. This all coincided with the Act(ing)
Party’s national conference held at Allan Gibbs’ modest we two up two down,
north of Auckland. There the miniature member managed to suck in the TV cameras
to film him pretending to run up a hill, presumably to show that he was moving
the party upwards. He enthusiastically told the reporter that Act could have
six MPs if they get five percent at the next election (still clinging to the
coat-tails rule). However he blithely ignored the fact that at the last
election they Act(ually) got ONE percent and in the aforementioned 3News poll
they got 0.1 percent.
But given how inaccurate the latter might be that could
just as easily be 0.0001 percent. I’m just sayin’.
